Chapter 17: Who Will Be President?

“By the way, the U.S. presidential election is coming up soon,” Director Wang shifted the topic. “Who do you think will win?”

“Whoever wins, it’s all the same nonsense. Don’t be fooled by their domestic bickering; when it comes to dealing with China, they’re all united,” Governor Lu said angrily. “Those Americans just can’t stand seeing China succeed.”

“Exactly!” Old Jia agreed. “If there’s ever a bull market in China’s stock market, it wouldn’t serve U.S. national interests. So the U.S. has always suppressed and shorted China’s capital markets. No matter who becomes president, the goal is to contain China’s rise.”

“That’s right. What China needs now is a slow bull market lasting ten, or even thirty years. Only then will there be enough time to complete the transformation from old to new growth drivers and to cultivate and upgrade new quality productivity,” Mr. Ding, a major shareholder, said thoughtfully.

Director Wang said, “In just a couple of days, the U.S. election results will be revealed. Between these two candidates, who do you think would be more beneficial for China? Or rather, who do you hope will take office?” He looked around, seeking their opinions.

Old Jia was the first to joke, “Haha, between these two, one’s a lunatic, the other a homewrecker. Either way, whoever wins, it’s actually great fortune for China—a once-in-a-century opportunity that no one can stop. If forced to pick between two rotten apples, I’d choose the crazy old man.”

Everyone was momentarily stunned, then burst into laughter.

Dragon Wuyang looked confused and quickly asked, “Uncle, what do you mean by that?”

Old Jia, laughing so hard he was almost out of breath, explained, “Let me tell you a story, but from a metaphysical perspective—don’t take it too seriously. There’s a saying: behind every successful man is a wise wife; any other women are just troublemakers. Behind every successful woman, there are countless successful men protecting her. So, if the crazy old man wins, he’ll be all alone. He has close ties to the Jewish community, firmly supports Israel, and will probably personally get involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. If America gets bogged down in the Middle East, it could turn into another Vietnam or Afghanistan—an enormous blessing for China. Also, the crazy old man represents traditional American industrial capital; he launched the trade war. But after a few years, China came out stronger, with many high-end industries flourishing thanks to import substitution in the domestic market. Now China no longer fears trade wars.

“As for the homewrecker, her rise shows she’s quite a strategist—America’s Wu Zetian. She represents the Democratic Party, which stands for American tech and financial capital. They have expert handlers manipulating global financial markets and are masters of tech warfare. They can’t bear to see a healthy bull market in China, so if she wins, she’ll constantly plot against our A-shares. China’s financial sector is currently beset by internal and external troubles and isn’t prepared; it needs a buffer period for strategic transformation and adjustment. The Democrats are closely tied to European interests and don’t care much about Israel but are very focused on Ukraine. So she likely won’t get entangled in the Middle East but will get caught up in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is a meat grinder that could drag down Russia. China can’t openly support Russia, so how to aid them is a sensitive and troubling issue. Poor handling could harm China’s interests. Russia fears escalation, and even younger generations are voluntarily enlisting. From China’s strategic perspective, the Russia-Ukraine war can’t stop, and neither can the Middle Eastern standoff. These two regional conflicts tie down two superpowers, giving China the breathing room and time for economic transition. China can remain neutral and reap maximum political, military, and economic benefits from both, while focusing on resolving issues in the eastern straits.”

“Haha, your Three Kingdoms-style analysis is refreshing, and it does make sense,” Director Wang laughed heartily.

“In fact, the U.S. two-party struggle isn’t mysterious at all. I’ve summed it up in one sentence: the two parties tacitly cooperate to build a global hegemonic market economy with American characteristics,” Old Jia dropped a bombshell, silencing the room instantly.

“What does that mean? Uncle, stop teasing us—tell us!” Dragon Wuyang eagerly urged.

Old Jia cleared his throat and said, “The two parties’ governing philosophies are clear-cut. The Republicans stand for small government, deregulation, and economic liberalization. The Democrats are the opposite—big government, tight regulation, and economic intervention. To put it bluntly, Republicans promote market economies, Democrats push planned economies. When Republicans overheat the market and cause a crash, Democrats step in to clean up with planned economic measures. Once stabilized, Republicans return to stimulate the economy. It’s a cycle of ‘tighten and loosen,’ and that’s how the U.S. economy is managed.”

“Isn’t that similar to China’s macroeconomic regulation? China runs a socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics,” Mr. Ding suddenly realized.

“Exactly. All roads lead to Rome; the fundamental economic laws are the same, only the forms differ,” Governor Lu chimed in. “China must have confidence in its own theories and culture, especially in financial theory.”

“So, China’s policies must align with the rhythm and characteristics of U.S. party struggles, responding flexibly. China’s economic cycle is five years, roughly covering one full term of either party. If there’s a second term, we need to adjust accordingly,” Director Wang added.

“So the U.S. is currently in a situation that calls for deregulation and liberalization. That’s why I think the crazy old man has a high chance to win. Despite the heated campaign, the outcome is ultimately decided by economic laws, though the timing may vary. China’s economic transition also needs a globally relaxed, free economic environment. If China and the U.S. can synchronize their transition rhythms, that’s national fortune,” Old Jia said thoughtfully.

“Perfectly put. This so-called national fortune is unstoppable once it arrives—a historical tide, vast and irresistible,” Mr. Ding sighed. “I hope us old timers can witness this fortune blooming in our lifetime.”

“Well, we post-2000s generation can see it too. Is this our beta phase?” Dragon Wuyang asked eagerly.

“This is the beta for all Chinese people!” Mr. Ding said confidently. “If China’s stock market can sustain a thirty-year slow bull, we old folks will see it.”

“Yes, what China needs most now is time. At least thirty years of peaceful development. If we truly get a slow bull market lasting three decades, the Chinese Dream will surely be realized,” Director Wang concluded excitedly.

“Here’s to the crazy old man winning the presidency as I wish—let’s drink to his good luck!” Old Jia raised a can of Red Bull, and everyone drank heartily.