Chapter 26: The Metaphysics of the Stock Market

Brother Hao also stood up, walked to Sister Mei’s side, and gazed into the distance. His brows were slightly furrowed, and his fingers tapped rhythmically against the windowpane, as if he were pondering something.

"Suppose Chuan Jianguo loses this time—what will happen once the Donkey Party takes power?" Brother Hao turned around, his eyes sharp as an eagle’s, and stared at Old Jia, who was sitting on the sofa.

Old Jia took a large gulp of tea and sighed, a hint of lingering fear in his eyes. "Then we’ll be in for a miserable time," he said dejectedly. "That bunch of Donkey Party people who handle finance? They’re waging financial wars against us day in and day out. In this regard, China is too weak; we’re simply no match for them. Forget four years—they could launch a hundred campaigns in four months, and our stock market would never have a moment’s peace. They’d strip away all our wealth."

Li Zhiheng took out his phone to open the Changfeng Securities high-achievers app, his gaze shifting back and forth between the stock trend charts on the screen and Old Jia. "Oh, man. Everyone said Chuan Jianguo’s election would be good for China, but the stock market hasn't really risen much lately. It’s still just as lifeless as ever, and it’s taken a big tumble recently." His voice carried a trace of helplessness and self-mockery.

Xiao Yongbing teased Li Zhiheng with a touch of schadenfreude, "Your New Third Board stocks have no liquidity anyway—what does their rise or fall have to do with your net worth?"

"The New Third Board is China’s Nasdaq; there’s no liquidity, and the valuations aren't high. Sigh, we really are siblings in adversity!" Li Zhiheng clinked his teacup against Sister Mei’s, and the two smiled at each other, seemingly finding a shred of comfort in the midst of this financial storm.

Sister Mei took out a cigarette and handed it to Li Zhiheng. "If we’re friends, you’ll smoke one with me, okay? Don't be so fake." Her tone was playful, but her eyes were sincere.

"One it is, though my smoking posture isn’t as imposing as yours, so don’t laugh at me." Li Zhiheng took the cigarette, lit it, and took a deep drag, immediately erupting into a loud cough that sent Sister Mei into peals of laughter.

Old Jia turned to Brother Hao and asked, "What do you think is the true mindset of the American voters who chose Chuan Jianguo? Do they actually hold any hope for him?"

Brother Hao took a sip of tea, his eyes light. "American elections are just a form of entertainment. There are all kinds of ideas, no unified will—they are a country that champions freedom. It’s not really about hope or lack thereof; they just feel that Chuan Jianguo wants to develop manufacturing, which helps with employment for the lower-middle class. If you let the Donkey Party handle finance, it has absolutely nothing to do with the ordinary American people; that’s all the business of the elite class."

"Exactly, that is the essence of the problem," Old Jia nodded in agreement. "For instance, if China wants to develop manufacturing, it can use the 'people-oriented' nature of finance to require state-owned financial institutions to support the real economy with capital, and this will be implemented without fail. Although the process may be slow or encounter setbacks, I believe that as the subsequent cleanup and rectification of domestic financial institutions are completed, and the leading role of state-owned financial institutions becomes increasingly powerful, the prospects and timetable for supporting the real economy will be tangible and clear."

Old Jia paused before continuing, "But look at Chuan Jianguo—he wants to develop manufacturing, but where will his capital come from? American finance is in the hands of private consortiums; the state has no financial resources at its disposal. These resources are controlled by the Donkey Party. Do you think the Donkey Party would use their capital to support Chuan Jianguo’s manufacturing? It’s pure wishful thinking! A fractured America is the result of the split between manufacturing and finance, as well as the split between the elite and the commoners caused by long-term social stratification. This rift cannot be solved within Chuan Jianguo’s term, which means that no matter how wonderful or correct his political ideals may be, he has no way to implement them. All those correct policy platforms will ultimately remain on PowerPoint slides and become a political joke. That is the destiny of China."

A flash of light crossed Xiao Yongbing’s eyes. "In these four years, Chuan Jianguo will keep tossing and turning, which will cause America’s former allies and industrial chains to lean closer and closer to China. Meanwhile, he will keep suppressing the Donkey Party’s financial capital, making it impossible or at least difficult for financial America to stir up trouble against China in the international market. This will create a relatively loose external financial environment and a window of opportunity for China. So, I believe that after Chuan Jianguo takes office next year, the freedom and ease of China’s economy will be much better. If this year is a year for lying flat and watching, then 2025 will be a year to roll up our sleeves and work hard." Xiao Yongbing gestured excitedly, pouring out his optimistic expectations in one breath.

Sister Mei took a deep drag of her cigarette and suddenly threw out a strange question: "Is this old man going to pull any stunts during this period?"

Old Jia gave a wry smile. "That is precisely the greatest uncertainty. The stock market has fallen back recently; that’s quite normal. Between now and February next year, before he officially takes office, market sentiment will be extremely conflicted. Have you heard of the 'metaphysics' of the stock market lately?"

"I have. The stock market is just like Chuan Jianguo—it rises and falls for no reason at all." Li Zhiheng became highly interested and continued to hold court. "There are all kinds of 'metaphysical' stock trading: trading based on names, zodiac signs, regions, or inexplicable associations. It’s bizarre! For instance, if Chuan Jianguo suffers a setback, 'Chuanda Zhisheng' hits the daily limit; if the 'Black Monkey' Sun Wukong becomes a hit, 'Dongtu Technology' hits the board. Hahahaha!"

Brother Hao also became interested. "This wave of post-00s investors is the main force in the market; they all trade based on TikTok—it's a form of attention economy! In the era of social media, many jokes are easily fermented, eventually forming emotional traffic that induces capital from retail investors. The sharp rise of related stocks is an expression of this sentiment. Once it has a meme, a joke, and attracts public attention, it spreads rapidly, attracts more people, and the follow-the-herd mentality forms a closed loop."

"So trading stocks has become an entertainment segment? Chuan Jianguo’s campaign is an entertainment segment—now finance and politics are crossing over into our entertainment industry to grab traffic! How are we in the entertainment business supposed to survive?" Sister Mei said with a straight-faced, mischievous grin, appearing indignant.

Hahaha, seeing Sister Mei like that, everyone burst into laughter.

Old Jia almost choked on his laughter. Wiping tears from his eyes, he gasped, "Sister Mei summed it up perfectly! A mindless political entertainment state drives a global financial entertainment state, which will eventually influence the global economic entertainment state. This 'entertainment state' means that market expectations are chaotic and disorderly. Metaphysical stock trading is driven by emotion, lacking empirical research and logical reasoning; it doesn't follow any analytical method or pattern—it’s equivalent to gambling. In terms of stock market performance, it means the market, which would normally oscillate within a narrow range, suddenly experiences inexplicable, neurotic surges and plunges. It might be rising perfectly one minute, then suddenly hit a no-volume limit down the next."

"That is the current mindset of the market, as well as the mindset of the entire international community, right?" Li Zhiheng asked.

"Exactly. Everyone has already seen the tragic ending and future of an incoming president, yet this president refuses to accept fate; he insists on fighting against it and is determined to lock horns with the Donkey Party to avenge a single gunshot. He has so much power, and he loves to govern via Twitter—you tell me, is the world order chaotic? Are market expectations chaotic? If the market is chaotic, how could stock prices possibly have a trend-driven movement?" Old Jia spoke with growing fervor.

Brother Hao nodded. "Oh, then I suppose it’s time to operate with half-positions; absolutely no adding leverage." He was glad that he had closed out his margin financing over the past two days, and although he had some positions in U.S. stocks, he hadn’t used leverage there either.

"Right, just do some short-term swings, especially for an old fellow like you who has both money and time," Old Jia chuckled.

"I’m just afraid of getting Alzheimer's. I don't do real industry anymore, so I might as well play the stock market," Brother Hao smiled. "By the way, if you guys have another round of financing, count me in. After listening to Old Jia today, I have confidence in the Chinese economy again. Especially you folks—culture and elderly care are both great tracks! To make money, you have to come to China; American society is only good for living." His words were tinged with a joke, but his eyes revealed a touch of sincerity.

"It’s only good for the lives of rich people like you," everyone laughed and said to Brother Hao. "We won't count on that; we still have to struggle here in China."

The atmosphere at the dinner table was warm. Despite the uncertainty of the outside world, in this small space, everyone seemed to have found a shared faith and strength, and each had found their own goals and confidence. A group of graying Yuyuan entrepreneurs, in this turbulent era, gathered their spirits and continued toward the next battlefield.