Chapter 25: Two Americas

In the restaurant, someone was watching a video on their phone, broadcasting a commentary on the election of "Chuan Jianguo" (Trump) as president. His rise to power felt like a ticking time bomb, filling the world with unease. The Chinese, in particular, seemed even more concerned about the U.S. presidential election than the Americans themselves.

"Now that Chuan Jianguo is in power, what kind of situation will we face?" Sister Mei’s voice broke the brief silence at the table, her eyes filled with worry. "I think this old man is cunning and malicious. Won’t he come up with some underhanded tricks to deal with us?"

Brother Hao gave a disdainful laugh, a flash of contempt in his eyes. "Heh, you’re not wrong. This nasty old man is specifically targeting us. His campaign platform includes banning Chinese investment in the U.S., preventing Chinese citizens from buying property there, and demanding that all Chinese companies listed on the NASDAQ delist. He also wants to shut down all Confucius Institutes. Furthermore, he wants to prohibit U.S. investment in China, including banning American pension funds from buying Chinese stocks through the Stock Connect programs." Though his tone was mocking, his words made Sister Mei’s expression even more somber.

Sister Mei leaned back in her chair, frustrated and tense. She asked Old Jia, "What do you suggest we do if this actually happens?" Her fingers subconsciously rubbed the edge of the table, betraying her anxiety.

Old Jia scanned the group, his gaze firm. "When soldiers come, you block them; when water comes, you cover it with earth. U.S. presidents always say one thing and do another; their campaign platforms rarely align with their actual governance. They say anything to win votes, but once in office, they have to balance pros and cons, often finding themselves unable to act on their rhetoric. We should listen to what they say, but watch what they do. Of course, strategically we should despise him, but tactically we must take him seriously—that’s what Chairman Mao said." His tone was light, as if he were trying to reassure them.

"Alright, alright, we know the principles, but what if he forces me to delist?" Sister Mei lit another cigarette, her eyes becoming distant behind the swirling smoke.

Old Jia smiled slightly and said with conviction, "Don't worry! The central government's financial reforms have already fully accounted for such extreme scenarios. To cope with a comprehensive decoupling from the U.S.—especially in the financial sector—the mainland Chinese capital market and the Hong Kong financial market are already preparing for companies like yours, the U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, to return if you are forced to delist. If it really comes to that, just come back to China. You just said all the money you made went to foreign shareholders; now that you have the chance to return to the Chinese stock market, would you be willing?" Old Jia stared at her intently.

A spark of light flashed in Sister Mei’s eyes, her voice filled with anticipation. "Of course I would! It was you guys who wouldn't let me list domestically back then, so we had no choice but to go to the U.S. Of course, even if we had listed domestically back then, we wouldn't have been able to raise any money." She explained with a sigh.

"True. Back then, everyone was chasing real estate because it was the most profitable sector in China. Financial institutions funneled money into property because it was reliable. If you are a light-asset gaming company with no property, no factories, and no land, and they lend you money only for your game to fail, that money is gone. So, it was rational behavior for financiers at the time not to lend to you, because there were safer, more stable companies in the market," Old Jia explained.

"Then are they willing to lend to light-asset companies like us now, without land or factories?" Li Zhiheng interjected, his eyes full of doubt.

"Heh, times have changed. They should be willing now," Old Jia said, drawing out his words. "Otherwise, Chinese finance would lose its 'people-centric' nature, wouldn't it? Don't you all agree?"

Everyone looked at each other and burst into knowing laughter.

Old Jia continued, "Faced with the issue of being 'people-centric,' don't many problems suddenly become solvable? If you ask a Chinese financial firm to invest in real estate now, would they dare? When the whole of society expects that housing prices cannot continue to rise significantly, real estate is no longer a good investment target. In the future, the cultural and technological industries will be the key areas encouraged by the state, and they will be the industry tracks with the longest runways and the thickest snow." Old Jia once again provided the group with peace of mind.

"What Brother Hao said earlier about Chuan Jianguo not allowing Chinese investment in the U.S.—is that realistic?" Xiao Yongbing asked skeptically. "If China doesn't invest in the U.S., who will buy American government bonds?"

"That is indeed the platform of the 'Elephant' faction," Old Jia explained. "Once Chuan Jianguo is elected, he will implement the core platform of the Elephant faction. Their agenda, in short, is to decouple from the 'Financial America' of the 'Donkey' faction under the banner of 'Make America.*' Chuan Jianguo has always wanted to restore the glory of American manufacturing. He will firmly execute this strategy. He took a massive hit this time, almost losing his soul, so the grudge against the Donkey faction is deep. He will show no mercy in dismantling their 'Financial America' strategy."

"What kind of impact will that have on us?" Li Zhiheng asked urgently.

"The core idea of 'Make America' is that China cannot invest in the U.S., and the U.S. cannot invest in China. The U.S. will block Chinese capital from acquiring assets and equity, including buying property as Brother Hao mentioned. They won't allow Chinese companies to raise funds in the U.S., meaning forced delistings for NASDAQ-listed Chinese firms. They will especially prohibit the acquisition of equity in American tech companies. They will restrict or even ban Chinese companies from setting up factories in the U.S. Those who have already invested will face a difficult future. These are mostly new energy vehicle manufacturers that set up shop in the U.S. to avoid high tariffs during the trade war. The U.S. goal is to isolate China's manufacturing sector globally and restore its own."

"How is that possible? Does the U.S. even have any advantages left to restore its manufacturing?" Xiao Yongbing asked, puzzled.

"It’s completely impossible!" Brother Hao added excitedly. "If Chuan Jianguo could serve consecutive terms—if the Elephant faction could stay in power for 20 years and consistently implement this strategy—perhaps. But unfortunately, the U.S. is a country where two parties rotate in power. He can serve at most one more term. Four years later, the Donkey faction will take over and overturn all his policies. His beautiful wish may not be realized. That’s why I say Chuan Jianguo taking office is the best outcome for China. As long as he stubbornly pushes this strategy during his term, it will not only fail, but will actually cause more supply chains in Europe, Japan, and South Korea to lean toward China. This actually helps China consolidate its position as the global manufacturing hub of the Pacific Rim, radiating that influence to Europe and beyond. To China, Chuan Jianguo is a godsend. Haha!"

"Is this what you call 'national destiny'?" Sister Mei asked Old Jia.

"I interpret this as beta (β), as national destiny. Think about it: isn't his 'Make America' strategy similar to China’s 'Made in China 2025'? As the saying goes, great minds think alike; both major powers have realized the importance of manufacturing. China’s financial industry had been imitating Wall Street, following the 'Financial America' path of the Donkey faction. China’s recent financial reforms were a timely brake on the shift from the real economy to the virtual, allowing finance to return to serving the real economy. The U.S. has gone too far down the path of virtual financial capital, and now that Chuan Jianguo has discovered the loss of national strength, he wants to turn back. Do you know how hard that is? Once China sets a strategy, it can firmly implement it over several five-year plans without changing direction, only adjusting the pace. But Chuan Jianguo? He has at most four years. Can you restore global manufacturing in four years? To be blunt, in four years, you couldn't even design a single plane, let alone restore an entire manufacturing base. But his mindless, stubborn push will actually force other supply chains—even those within the U.S.—back toward China. Everyone knows he is a 'last emperor' of sorts; his words are only valid for four years. Trying to build an industry in four years? That’s just a chaotic mess." Old Jia took a large gulp of tea, his throat feeling dry.

"That's right!" Everyone realized. "Chuan Jianguo sees the problem, but he can't actually do it, so he can only fret in vain!" Xiao Yongbing added excitedly.

The atmosphere at the table gradually relaxed as they began to discuss their own plans and countermeasures. Sister Mei stood up, walked to the window, and took a deep breath. She knew that no matter how the future changed, she and her company had to be ready to face the challenges ahead.